ASSESSMENT OF SEISMIC RISK AND RELIABILITY BASED ON THE RESULTS OF PASSPORTIZATION
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Keywords

passportization, risk, building, losses, reliability, repeatability, vulnerability, tectonic faults

Abstract

In the city of Almaty, a complete certification of the housing stock of multi-apartment buildings was carried out for the first time. A total of over 10 thousand buildings were inspected. The structure of the housing stock was revealed, with groups of buildings identified based on design solutions and reliability assessment. Based on the certification results, quantitative assessments of the failure probability values for various types of buildings were obtained for the first time. Formulas for assessing the quantitative value of seismic risk were obtained. The results of seismic vulnerability assessment using the classification of buildings according to the European macroseismic scale EMS-98 and the seismic scale MSK-64(K) used in the Republic of Kazakhstan are presented. The obtained results are compared. The number of multi-story residential buildings of various design types located on tectonic faults was identified. Based on global statistical data, the number of people killed in a design earthquake was assessed. An integral assessment of the reliability (probability of failure-free operation) of the multi-story housing stock of Almaty was obtained. It was shown that the demolition of non-earthquake-resistant wooden buildings will increase the overall reliability of a group of multi-story residential buildings by almost 15%. It has been established that the most dangerous buildings are those with external load-bearing walls and an internal frame; buildings with load-bearing walls made of brickwork and precast reinforced concrete floors; buildings with a height of 2 or more floors with load-bearing walls made of brickwork and wooden floors; single-storey buildings with load-bearing walls made of brickwork. The results of the quantitative assessment of seismic risk values can be used to develop rational urban development schemes and economic assessment of the territory used.

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